Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus

Abstract

Limited initial supply of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. We used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20 to 49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults greater than 60 years old. Use of individual-level serological tests to redirect doses to seronegative individuals improved the marginal impact of each dose while potentially reducing existing inequities in COVID-19 impact. Although maximum impact prioritization strategies were broadly consistent across countries, transmission rates, vaccination rollout speeds, and estimates of naturally acquired immunity, this framework can be used to compare impacts of prioritization strategies across contexts.

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• Novel dynamic fuzzy Decision-Making framework for COVID-19 vaccine dose recipients · 2022
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• Rapid Evaluation of Vaccine Booster Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Variants · 2022
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• The changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 · 2022
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• Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review · 2021
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• Diagnostic performance and clinical implications of rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing in Mexico using real-world nationwide COVID-19 registry data. · 2021
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• The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. · 2021
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• Modeling vaccination rollouts, SARS-CoV-2 variants and the requirement for non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy · 2021
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• Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers · 2021
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• Distinct antibody and memory B cell responses in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered individuals after mRNA vaccination · 2021
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