Probabilistic Modeling of Updating Epistemic Uncertainty In Pile Capacity Prediction With a Single Failure Test Result

The model error N has been introduced to denote the discrepancy between measured and predicted capacity of pile foundation. This model error is recognized as epistemic uncertainty in pile capacity prediction. The statistics of N have been evaluated based on data gathered from various sites and may be considered only as a eneral-error trend in capacity prediction, providing crude estimates of the model error in the absence of more specific data from the site. The results of even a single load test to failure, should provide direct evidence of the pile capacity at a given site. Bayes theorem has been used as a rational basis for combining new data with previous data to revise assessment of uncertainty and reliability. This study is devoted to the development of procedures for updating model error (N), and subsequently the predicted pile capacity with a results of single failure test.

Abstract licence: CC BY-ND

7 more references, whose wording the paper’s licence keeps private.

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.