On quantitative determination of earthquake risk

A method is proposed for the calculation of a comparable<br />measure of the earthquake risk from the coefficient- a* of the N(M)-<br />relation normalized to a standard slope b, and a standard area. In comparing<br />the earthquake risk in Greece and Southern California, it was found<br />that the average and the maximum earthquake risk in the area of Greece<br />is about one half and two times, respectively, the average earthquake risk<br />in Southern California.<br />Another method is proposed for the calculation of the recurrence rates<br />for earthquakes of a given magnitude range in small areas for which the<br />existing earthquake magnitude data are not abundant and good enough for<br />determining a reliable recurrence curve. In view of the large fluctuation of<br />the actual recurrence rates for earthquakes of a given magnitude -disregarding<br />the accuracy of the available data — mapping in the form of the earthquake<br />frequency isolines seems to be meaningless for engineering purposes.

Abstract licence: CC BY

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