Climate Projections and Time Series Analysis over Roma Fiumicino Airport Using COSMO-CLM: Insights from Advanced Statistical Methods

The evaluation of climate change effects on airport infrastructures is important to maintain safety and flexibility in air travel operations. Airports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations, which can disrupt operations, compromise passenger safety, and cause economic losses. Issues such as flooded runways and the disruption of power supplies highlight the need for strong adaptation strategies. The study focuses on the application of the high-resolution regional model COSMO-CLM to assess climate change impacts on Roma Fiumicino airport (Italy) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The complex topography of Italy requires fine-scale simulation to catch localized climate dynamics. By employing advanced statistical methods, such as fractal analysis, this research aims to increase an understanding of climate change and improve the model prediction capability. The findings provide valuable insights for designing resilient airport infrastructures and updating operational protocols in view of evolving climate risks. A consistent increase in daily temperatures is projected, along with a modest positive trend in annual precipitation. The use of advanced statistical methods revealed insights into the fractal dimensions and frequency components of climate variables, showing an increasing complexity and variability of future climatic patterns.

Abstract licence: CC BY

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