The effects of climate change and flooding on the quality of education for secondary school students in Colombia

Background and objectives: This study seeks to analyze and quantify the effects of the floods that occurred in Colombia during the year two thousand ten because of the La Niña climate phenomenon, specifically on the academic performance and school dropout rates of students enrolled in secondary education. Methods: The research employed information from the National System for Disaster Prevention and Response and the Colombian Institute for the Evaluation of Education. To address potential bias related to the non-random distribution of floods, the study used a two-stage regression model with instrumental variables, incorporating indicators of rainfall intensity and geographical water coverage as instruments. Findings: The results indicate that municipalities in which a significant proportion of the population was affected by flooding presented lower scores in the national standardized test used to measure academic achievement among students finishing high school. These results were consistent even after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics at both the individual and household levels, and after correcting for statistical endogeneity in the model. Conclusion: The findings suggest that floods as a type of natural disaster have a substantial and negative effect on the educational outcomes of students in the most impacted areas. These effects may persist over time, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive public policies aimed at mitigating the educational consequences of climate-related emergencies and supporting resilience in vulnerable communities.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC

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