Damage trends in selected forest regions and a future period forecast

The research carried out in Serbia so far revealed an increase in forest damages from natural hazards, as well as increased share in total forest damages with their territorial inequality. This research aims to determine the trend in the number and area of damages, the area of damages per one harmful event, and the prognosis of damages caused by the harmful effects of water, wind and fire in selected forest regions of Serbia. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend regression and correlation analysis and other specific methods. The results of the research indicate that there are differences in the trends per harmful factor. An increasing trend is visible with the damages caused by the effects of water and wind but also in the extent of damages caused by all three detrimental factors. A decreasing trend is noticeable only for the damages caused by fire. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 43007: Studies of climate changes and their impact on the environment - monitoring impacts, adaptation and mitigation, sub-project no. 43007/16- III: Socio-economic development, mitigation and adaptation to climate change]

Abstract licence: CC BY

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