MATHEMATICAL MODELLING WITHIN THE ROAD SAFETY MANAGEMENT

The precondition for effective management of road safety on the part of the road administrators is a thorough and correct identification of sites with increased frequency of accidents on individual sections of the road network. The adequacy of identification results from the application of such specific methodologies, which will allow to reveal sites with a high rate of local risk factors with the potential to cause collisions in road traffic and thus appropriately allocate adequate funds to remove them. Besides the empirical statistical records, one of reliable methods for the identification of potential black spots is also the mathematical modelling of adverse events on individual road entities and their subsequent estimation in terms of probability of occurrence in the future. The application of the method described in the article allows, following the discovery of a causal link between the frequency of accidents and their consequences and possible risk factors concerning the nature of traffic, to identify potential black spots without the necessity of reporting high accident rate in the past.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC

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