Marketing Contracts, Overconfidence, and Timing in the Canadian Wheat Market

This paper investigates factors that impact marketing performance in the Canadian wheat market. Using data provided by the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) for six crop years, results indicate that producers were not able to profitably use all marketing contracts offered by the CWB, earlier pricing tended to generate better performance, there was a negative relationship between activeness and performance (suggesting overconfidence in marketing skills), and performance was generally worse in volatile crop years. Further analysis reveals some of these findings differ when outperforming and underperforming producers are investigated separately, particularly with respect to activeness and volatility.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC

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