DATING BUSINESS CYCLES IN LITHUANIA BY SIMPLE UNIVARIATE METHODS

In this paper, we use three basic univariate techniques, namely, BBQ algorithm, time series filtering, and Markov-switching models, to date and characterize Lithuanian business cycles from 1995 to 2010. We find that economic growth in Lithuania was relatively balanced after the Russian Crisis until late 2006. After that, the economy experienced an extreme, although relatively brief, period of an overheated economic climate before plunging into a very deep recession at the end of 2008. Using the BBQ algorithm, we provide some simple comparisons of the two recessions as well as international data obtained in other studies. Our Markov-switching regression exercise, confirming the findings above, additionally indicates that recessionary periods may have shocks with non-finite variances and economically significant permanent effects on output.

Abstract licence: CC BY

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