Skip to content
naulon

No retraction, correction or concern found when last checked on Oct 22, 2026.

Effective injury forecasting in soccer with GPS training data and machine learning

Alessio Rossi, Luca Pappalardo, Paolo Cintia and 3 more

PLOS ONE · 2018 · CC BY

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0201264

Abstract

Injuries have a great impact on professional soccer, due to their large influence on team performance and the considerable costs of rehabilitation for players. Existing studies in the literature provide just a preliminary understanding of which factors mostly affect injury risk, while an evaluation of the potential of statistical models in forecasting injuries is still missing. In this paper, we propose a multi-dimensional approach to injury forecasting in professional soccer that is based on GPS measurements and machine learning. By using GPS tracking technology, we collect data describing the training workload of players in a professional soccer club during a season. We then construct an injury forecaster and show that it is both accurate and interpretable by providing a set of case studies of interest to soccer practitioners. Our approach opens a novel perspective on injury prevention, providing a set of simple and practical rules for evaluating and interpreting the complex relations between injury risk and training performance in professional soccer.

Full text

Its licence does not allow us to show the full text. Read it at PubMed Central:

Read at PubMed Central

References 30

  1. 1.

    Hägglund M, Waldén M, Magnusson H, Kristenson H, Bengtsson H, Exstrand J. Injuries affect team performance negatively in professional football: an 11-year follow-up of the UEFA Champions League injury study. British Journal of Sports Medicine,, 2013

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsports-2013-092215

  2. 2.
  3. 3.

    Lehmann EE, Schulze GG. What Does it Take to be a Star?–The Role of Performance and the Media for German Soccer Players. Applied Economics Quarterly 54:1, pp. 59–70,, 2008.

    Not in our library10.3790/aeq.54.1.59

  4. 4.

    Fernández-Cuevas I., Gomez-Carmona P, Sillero-Quintana M, Noya-Salces J, Arnaiz-Lastras J, Pastor-Barrón A. Economic costs estimation of soccer injuries in first and second Spanish division professional teams. 15th Annual Congress of the European College of Sport Sciences ECSS, 23th 26th june. 2010.

    Not in our library

  5. 5.

    Gudmundsson H, Horton M. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Team Sports, ACM Computing Surveys 50, 2, Article 22 (4 2017 ), 34 pages..

    Not in our library10.1145/3054132

  6. 6.

    Stein M, Janetzko H, Seebacher D, Jäger A, Nagel M, Hölsch J, et al How to Make Sense of Team Sport Data: From Acquisition to Data Modeling and Research Aspects. Data, 2:1, 2,, 2017.

    Not in our library10.3390/data2010002

  7. 7.

    Rossi A, Savino M, Perri E, Aliberti G, Trecroci A, Iaia M. Characterization of in-season elite football trainings by GPS features: The Identity Card of a Short-Term Football Training Cycle. 16th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, pp. 160–166,, 2016

    Not in our library10.1109/icdmw.2016.0030

  8. 8.

    Pappalardo L, Cintia P. Quantifying the relation between performance and success in soccer, Advances in Complex Systems, 20 (4),, 2017.

    Not in our library10.1142/s021952591750014x

  9. 9.

    Cintia P, Pappalardo L, Pedreschi D, Giannotti F, Malvaldi M. The harsh rule of the goals: data-driven performance indicators for football teams, In Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA’2015),, 2015.

    Not in our library10.1109/dsaa.2015.7344823

  10. 10.

    Brink MS, Visscher C, Arends S, Zwerver J, Post WJ, Lemmink KA. Monitoring stress and recovery: new insights for the prevention of injuries and illnesses in elite youth soccer players. Br J Sports Med. 2010;44: 809–15.

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsm.2009.069476

  11. 11.

    Ehrmann FE, Duncan CS, Sindhusake D, Franzsen WN, Greene DA. GPS and injury prevention in professional soccer. J Strength Cond Res. 2015;30:306–307.

    Not in our library10.1519/jsc.0000000000001093

  12. 12.

    Venturelli M, Schena F, Zanolla L, Bishop D. Injury risk factors in young soccer players detected by a multivariate survival model. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2011;14:293–298.

    Not in our library10.1016/j.jsams.2011.02.013

  13. 13.

    Kirkendall DT, Dvorak J. Effective Injury Prevention in Soccer. The physician and sports medicine, 38:1,, 2010.

    Not in our library10.3810/psm.2010.04.1772

  14. 14.

    Gabbett TJ. The development and application of an injury prediction model for noncontact, soft-tissue injuries in elite collision sport athletes. The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research. 2010;24(10):2593–2603.

    Not in our library10.1519/jsc.0b013e3181f19da4

  15. 15.

    Gabbett TJ, Ullah S. Relationship between running loads and soft-tissue injury in elite team sport athletes. J Strength Cond Res. 2012;26: 953–960.

    Not in our library10.1519/jsc.0b013e3182302023

  16. 16.

    Rogalski B, Dawson B, Heasman J, Gabbett TJ. Training and game loads and injury risk in elite Australian footballers. J Sci Med Sport. 2013;16: 499–503.

    Not in our library10.1016/j.jsams.2012.12.004

  17. 17.

    Gabbett TJ. The training-injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder? Br J Sports Med. 2016

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsports-2015-095788

  18. 18.

    Anderson L, Triplett-McBride T, Foster C, Doberstein S, Brice G. Impact of training patterns on incidence of illness and injury during a women’s collegiate basketball season. The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research. 2003; 17: 734–738.

    Not in our library10.1519/00124278-200311000-00018

  19. 19.

    Gabbett TJ. Reductions in pre-season training loads reduce training injury rates in rugby league players. British Journal of Sports Medicine. 2004;38: 74–749.

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsm.2003.005181

  20. 20.

    Hulin BT, Gabbett TJ, Blanch P, Chapman P, Bailey D, Orchard JV. Spikes in acute workload are associated with increased injury risk in elite cricket fast bowlers. Br J Sports Med. 2014;48:708–712.

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsports-2013-092524

  21. 21.

    Foster C. Monitoring training in athletes with reference to overtraining syndrome. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1998;30:1164–1168.

    Not in our library10.1097/00005768-199807000-00023

  22. 22.

    Talukder H, Vincent T, Foster G, Hu C, Huerta J, Kumar A, et al. Preventing in-game injuries for NBA players. MIT Sloan Analytics Conference. Boston; 2016.

    Not in our library

  23. 23.

    Kampakis S. Predictive modeling of football injuries, Phd Thesis, University College London, 2016

    Not in our library

  24. 24.

    Hagglund M, Walden M, Bahr R, Ekstrand J. Methods for epidemiological study of injuries to professional football players: developing the UEFA model. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 39:6, 340–346,, 2005

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsm.2005.018267

  25. 25.

    Duncan MJ, Badland HM, Mummery WK. Applying GPS to enhance understanding of transport-related physical activity. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2009;12: 549–556.

    Not in our library10.1016/j.jsams.2008.10.010

  26. 26.

    Murray NB, Gabbett TJ, Townshend AD, Blanch P. Calculation acute:chronic workload ratios using exponential weighted moving averages provides a more sensitive indicator of injury likelihood than rolling averages. Br J Sports Med. 2016

    Not in our library10.1136/bjsports-2016-097152

  27. 27.

    Guyon I, Weston J, Barnhill S, Vapnik V. Gene Selection for Cancer Classification Using Support Vector Machines. Machine Learning 46, 2002

    Not in our library10.1023/a:1012487302797

  28. 28.

    James G, Witten D, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. An Introduction to Statistical Learning New York, NY: Springer New York; 2013.

    Not in our library

  29. 29.

    He H, Bai Y, Garcia EA, Li S. ADASYN: Adaptive synthetic sampling approach for imbalanced learning. 2008 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

    Not in our library

  30. 30.

    Kazemitabar J, Amini A, Bloniarz A, Talwalkar A. Variable Importance using Decision Trees. 31st Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2017), Long Beach, CA, USA.

    Not in our library

Cited by papers we hold 3

Reads

Read by people on this page

None yet.

Checked or read by AI through naulon

None yet.

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.

Are you an author?

Is this your paper?

Claim it to add your note and be paid when agents cite it. Free.