Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.

In this note we discuss the issues involved in attempting to model pandemic dynamics. More specifically, we show how it may be possible to make projections for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. We derive first-approximation parameter estimates for the SIR model to describe seasonal influenza, and then explore the implications of the existing classical epidemiological theory for the case of a pandemic virus. In particular, we note the dramatic nonlinear increase in attack rate as a function of the percentage of susceptibles initially present in the population. This has severe consequences for the pandemic, given the general lack of immunity in the global population.

Abstract licence: CC BY

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