Predicting mortality among septic patients presenting to the emergency department–a cross sectional analysis using machine learning

Background Sepsis is a life-threatening condition, causing almost one fifth of all deaths worldwide. The aim of the current study was to identify variables predictive of 7- and 30-day mortality among variables reflective of the presentation of septic patients arriving to the emergency department (ED) using machine learning. Methods Retrospective cross-sectional design, including all patients arriving to the ED at Södersjukhuset in Sweden during 2013 and discharged with an International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 code corresponding to sepsis. All predictions were made using a Balanced Random Forest Classifier and 91 variables reflecting ED presentation. An exhaustive search was used to remove unnecessary variables in the final model. A 10-fold cross validation was performed and the accuracy was described using the mean value of the following: AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, positive LR and negative LR. Results The study population included 445 septic patients, randomised to a training ( n = 356, 80%) and a validation set ( n = 89, 20%). The six most important variables for predicting 7-day mortality were: “fever”, “abnormal verbal response”, “low saturation”, “arrival by emergency medical services (EMS)”, “abnormal behaviour or level of consciousness” and “chills”. The model including these variables had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.80–0.86). The final model predicting 30-day mortality used similar six variables, however, including “breathing difficulties” instead of “abnormal behaviour or level of consciousness”. This model achieved an AUC = 0.80 (CI 95%, 0.78–0.82). Conclusions The results suggest that six specific variables were predictive of 7- and 30-day mortality with good accuracy which suggests that these symptoms, observations and mode of arrival may be important components to include along with vital signs in a future prediction tool of mortality among septic patients presenting to the ED. In addition, the Random Forests appears to be a suitable machine learning method on which to build future studies.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC-ND

1. 16.

   Predicting mortality in patients with suspected sepsis at the Emergency Department; A retrospective cohort study comparing qSOFA, SIRS and National Early Warning Score · 2019

2. 19.

   The impact of artificial intelligence in medicine on the future role of the physician · 2019

3. 21.

   Global, regional, and national sepsis incidence and mortality, 1990–2017: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study · 2020

19 more references, whose wording the paper’s licence keeps private.

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.