Development of Predictive Emissions Monitoring System Using Open Source Machine Learning Library – Keras: A Case Study on a Cogeneration Unit

The study provides an overview of Predictive Emissions Monitoring System's (PEMS) research, application, installation, and regulatory framework as well as develops predictive models for NOx emissions from a natural gas fired cogeneration unit using an open source machine learning library, Keras, and open source programming languages, Python and R. Nine neural network based predictive models were trained with 12 086 examples and tested with 3020 examples. The neural network-based models use eight process parameters as inputs to predict NOx emissions. All models meet the regulatory requirements for precision. The best model (32-64-64-64) has four hidden layers and uses the Nadam method for optimization. The best model has a mean absolute error of 0.5982, r-value of 0.9451, and a difference of 0.14% between the measured and predicted emission values using the test dataset. The study demonstrated the feasibility of using open source machine learning library in PEMS development. It also provides guidance to facility operators to develop their own PEMS models for monitoring emissions.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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