A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Abstract

Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

Cited by papers we hold 11

• Model-Based Evaluation of Transmissibility and Intervention Measures for a COVID-19 Outbreak in Xiamen City, China · 2022
  Not checked
• Dynamics of an SIR-Based COVID-19 Model With Linear Incidence Rate, Nonlinear Removal Rate, and Public Awareness · 2021
  Not checked
• The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China · 2021
  Not checked
• A numerical and analytical study of SE(Is)(Ih)AR epidemic fractional order COVID-19 model · 2021
  Not checked
• Unique challenges to control the spread of COVID-19 in the Middle East · 2020
  Not checked
• Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan. · 2020
  Not checked
• Stochastic mathematical model for the spread and control of Corona virus · 2020
  Not checked
• The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak from a one health perspective · 2020
  Not checked
• Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions · 2020
  No notice
• The First 75 Days of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: Recent Advances, Prevention, and Treatment · 2020
  No notice
• Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence · 2020
  No notice

Questions about this paper

Reads

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.