Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Abstract

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO 2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO 2 , amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

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Cited by papers we hold 7

• Atmospheric CO₂ estimates for the Miocene to Pleistocene based on foraminiferal <i>δ</i>¹¹B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific · 2022
  Not checked
• A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA · 2022
  No notice
• Mid-Pleistocene Transition as a trigger for diversification in the Irano-Anatolian region: Evidence revealed by phylogeography and distribution pattern of the eastern three-lined lizard · 2021
  Not checked
• Adaptation and conservation insights from the koala genome · 2018
  No notice
• Macroecology and macroevolution of the latitudinal diversity gradient in ants · 2018
  No notice
• Protein sequences bound to mineral surfaces persist into deep time · 2016
  No notice
• Historical biogeography of fishes from coastal basins of Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil
  Not checked

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