Increasing thyroid cancer incidence in Canada, 1970–1996: time trends and age-period-cohort effects

Abstract

We examined time trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Canada by age, time period and birth cohort between 1970 and 1996. Age-specific incidence rates by time period and birth cohort were calculated and age-period-cohort modelling used to estimate effects underlying the observed trends. Overall age-adjusted incidence rates of thyroid cancer doubled, from 3.3 and 1.1 per 100 000 in 1970-72 to 6.8 and 2.2 per 100 000 in 1994-96, among females and males respectively. Almost all the increase between 1970-72 and 1994-96 was due to papillary carcinoma of the thyroid. Age, birth cohort and period effects significantly improved the fit of the model for females, while age and birth cohort effects were significant determinants of the incidence among males. There were significant differences in the patterns/curvature for age, period and birth cohort effects between women and men. Our results suggest that the increases in thyroid cancer incidence in Canada may be associated with more intensive diagnostic activities and change in radiation exposure in childhood and adolescence. Temporal changes in reproductive factors among young women may explain some of the gender differences observed.

References 25

1. 1.

   Akslen L. A., Haldorsen T., Thoresen S. O., Glattre E. Incidence pattern of thyroid cancer in Norway: influence of birth cohort and time period. Int J Cancer. 1993;53(2):183-187.

   Not in our library10.1002/ijc.2910530202

2. 2.

   Boice J. D. The danger of X-rays--real or apparent? N Engl J Med. 1986;315(13):828-830.

   Not in our library10.1056/nejm198609253151310

3. 3.

   Clayton D., Schifflers E. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age-period and age-cohort models. Stat Med. 1987;6(4):449-467.

   Not in our library10.1002/sim.4780060405

4. 4.

   Clayton D., Schifflers E. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models. Stat Med. 1987;6(4):469-481.

   Not in our library10.1002/sim.4780060406

5. 5.

   Franceschi S., La Vecchia C. Thyroid cancer. Cancer Surv. 1994;19-20:393-422.

   Not in our library

6. 6.

   Galanti M. R., Lambe M., Ekbom A., Sparén P., Pettersson B. Parity and risk of thyroid cancer: a nested case-control study of a nationwide Swedish cohort. Cancer Causes Control. 1995;6(1):37-44.

   Not in our library10.1007/bf00051679

7. 7.

   Holford T. R. Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort. Stat Methods Med Res. 1992;1(3):317-337.

   Not in our library10.1177/096228029200100306

8. 8.

   Holford T. R. Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annu Rev Public Health. 1991;12:425-457.

   Not in our library10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.002233

9. 9.

   Inskip P. D., Ekbom A., Galanti M. R., Grimelius L., Boice J. D. Medical diagnostic x rays and thyroid cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1995;87(21):1613-1621.

   Not in our library10.1093/jnci/87.21.1613

10. 10.

    Levi F., Franceschi S., Gulie C., Negri E., La Vecchia C. Female thyroid cancer: the role of reproductive and hormonal factors in Switzerland. Oncology. 1993;50(4):309-315.

    Not in our library10.1159/000227201

11. 11.

    Liu S., Semenciw R., Waters C., Wen S. W., Mery L. S., Mao Y. Clues to the aetiological heterogeneity of testicular seminomas and non-seminomas: time trends and age-period-cohort effects. Int J Epidemiol. 2000;29(5):826-831.

    Not in our library10.1093/ije/29.5.826

12. 12.

    Mack W. J., Preston-Martin S., Bernstein L., Qian D., Xiang M. Reproductive and hormonal risk factors for thyroid cancer in Los Angeles County females. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 1999;8(11):991-997.

    Not in our library

13. 13.

    Negri E., Dal Maso L., Ron E., La Vecchia C., Mark S. D., Preston-Martin S., McTiernan A., Kolonel L., Yoshimoto Y., Jin F. A pooled analysis of case-control studies of thyroid cancer. II. Menstrual and reproductive factors. Cancer Causes Control. 1999;10(2):143-155.

    Not in our library10.1023/a:1008880429862

14. 14.

    O'Callaghan F. J., Osmond C., Martyn C. N. Trends in epilepsy mortality in England and Wales and the United States, 1950-1994. Am J Epidemiol. 2000;151(2):182-189.

    Not in our library10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010186

15. 15.

    Paoff K., Preston-Martin S., Mack W. J., Monroe K. A case-control study of maternal risk factors for thyroid cancer in young women (California, United States). Cancer Causes Control. 1995;6(5):389-397.

    Not in our library10.1007/bf00052178

16. 16.

    Pettersson B., Adami H. O., Wilander E., Coleman M. P. Trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Sweden, 1958-1981, by histopathologic type. Int J Cancer. 1991;48(1):28-33.

    Not in our library10.1002/ijc.2910480106

17. 17.

    Preston-Martin S., Bernstein L., Pike M. C., Maldonado A. A., Henderson B. E. Thyroid cancer among young women related to prior thyroid disease and pregnancy history. Br J Cancer. 1987;55(2):191-195.

    Not in our library10.1038/bjc.1987.36

18. 18.

    Ron E., Kleinerman R. A., Boice J. D., LiVolsi V. A., Flannery J. T., Fraumeni J. F. A population-based case-control study of thyroid cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1987;79(1):1-12.

    Not in our library

19. 19.

    Shahpar C., Li G. Homicide mortality in the United States, 1935-1994: age, period, and cohort effects. Am J Epidemiol. 1999;150(11):1213-1222.

    Not in our library10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009948

20. 20.

    Shore R. E. Issues and epidemiological evidence regarding radiation-induced thyroid cancer. Radiat Res. 1992;131(1):98-111.

    Not in our library

21. 21.

    Shore R. E., Woodard E., Hildreth N., Dvoretsky P., Hempelmann L., Pasternack B. Thyroid tumors following thymus irradiation. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1985;74(6):1177-1184.

    Not in our library

22. 22.

    Spitz M. R., Sider J. G., Katz R. L., Pollack E. S., Newell G. R. Ethnic patterns of thyroid cancer incidence in the United States, 1973-1981. Int J Cancer. 1988;42(4):549-553.

    Not in our library10.1002/ijc.2910420413

23. 23.

    Tarone R. E., Chu K. C. Evaluation of birth cohort patterns in population disease rates. Am J Epidemiol. 1996;143(1):85-91.

    Not in our library10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008661

24. 24.

    Zheng T., Holford T. R., Chen Y., Ma J. Z., Flannery J., Liu W., Russi M., Boyle P. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of thyroid cancer in Connecticut, 1935-1992. Int J Cancer. 1996;67(4):504-509.

    Not in our library10.1002/(sici)1097-0215(19960807)67:4<504::aid-ijc7>3.0.co;2-w

25. 25.

    dos Santos Silva I., Swerdlow A. J. Thyroid cancer epidemiology in England and Wales: time trends and geographical distribution. Br J Cancer. 1993;67(2):330-340.

    Not in our library10.1038/bjc.1993.61

Cited by papers we hold 3

• Association between Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis and Thyroid Cancer in 64,628 Patients · 2017
  No notice
• Worldwide Increasing Incidence of Thyroid Cancer: Update on Epidemiology and Risk Factors · 2013
  No notice
• BMI, Diet and Female Reproductive Factors as Risks for Thyroid Cancer: A Systematic Review · 2012
  No notice

Reads

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.