Representation of simulation errors in single step methods using state dependent noise

The local error of single step methods is modelled as a function of the state derivative multiplied by bias and zero-mean white noise terms. The deterministic Taylor series expansion of the local error depends on the state derivative meaning that the local error magnitude is zero in steady state and grows with the rate of change of the state vector. The stochastic model of the local error may include a constant, “catch-all” noise term. A continuous time extension of the local error model is developed and this allows the original continuous time state differential equation to be represented by a combination of the simulation method and a stochastic term. This continuous time stochastic differential equation model can be used to study the propagation of the simulation error in Monte Carlo experiments, for step size control, or for propagating the mean and variance. This simulation error model can be embedded into continuous-discrete state estimation algorithms. Two illustrative examples are included to highlight the application of the approach.

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