A Projection of the Wind Energy in the Black Sea along the 21st Century

The objective of this study is to assess the future wind power potential in the Black Sea based on the wind fields provided by the most recent regional climate projections achieved in the framework of EURO-CORDEX project. The climate change impacts on the wind speed magnitude will bring changes in the local wind power generation. From this perspective, changes in the wind power potential along the 21st century in some reference locations of the Black Sea basin are investigated under the RCP4.5 scenario. The recent wind power conditions for a 30-year period (1976-2005) are assessed based on the results provided by the same RCM (Regional Climate Model) used to generate the future climate projections of the wind fields. The impact of the climate change on the future wind power potential is evaluated by comparisons between historical data and near-future (2021-2050) and more distant future (2071-2100) projections. Under the scenario considered, an increase of the mean wind power was observed until the middle of the 21st century, followed by a small decrease. From the seasonal analysis resulted that, in the reference points located on the western side, the projection of the wind energy in winter time suggests an increase until the end of the century. On the other hand, the linear regressions adjusted to the annual means do not indicate a significant trend.

Abstract licence: CC BY

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