Dynamical regulations on mobility and vaccinations for controlling COVID-19 spread

Abstract Using a system of time-dynamical equations, we investigate how daily mobility indices, such as the homestay percentage above the pre-COVID normal ( $$H\%$$ H %; or H-forcing), and the vaccinated percentage ( $$V_c\%$$ V c %; or V-forcing) impact the net reproductive rate (R0) of COVID-19 in ten island nations as a prototype, and then, extending it to 124 countries worldwide. Our H- and V-forcing model of R0 can explain the new trends in 106 countries. The disease transmission can be controlled by forcing down $$R0(H,V_c) < 1$$ R 0 ( H, V c ) < 1 with an enforcement of continuous $$H > 40\%$$ H > 40 % in $$93\%$$ 93 % of countries with $$0\%$$ 0 % vaccinated plus recovered, $$V_p$$ V p. The required critical $$H\%$$ H % decreases with increasing $$V_p\%$$ V p %, dropping it down to $$20\%$$ 20 % with $$25\% V_p$$ 25 % V p, and further down to $$8\%$$ 8 % with $$50\% V_p$$ 50 % V p. However, the regulations on $$H\%$$ H % are context-dependent and country-specific. Our model gives insights into forecasting and controlling the disease’s transmission behaviour when the effectiveness of the vaccines is a concern due to new variants, and/or there are delays in vaccination rollout programs.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC-ND

A person counts once a day per paper. We keep no cookie and no address: a reader is a hash that changes every day. Any month under five reads shows no number.