Using latent class cluster analysis to screen high risk clusters of birth defects between 2009 and 2013 in Northwest China

Abstract In the study, we aimed to explore the synergistic effects of multiple risk factors on birth defects, and examine temporal trend of the synergistic effects over time. Two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2009 and 2013 were merged and then latent class cluster analysis and generalized linear Poisson model were used. A total of 9085 and 29094 young children born within the last three years and their mothers were enrolled in 2009 and 2013 respectively. Three latent maternal exposure clusters were determined: a high-risk, a moderate-risk, and a low-risk cluster (88.97%, 1.49%, 9.54% in 2009 and 82.42%, 3.39%, 14.19% in 2013). The synthetic effects of maternal exposure to multiple risk factors could increase the risk of overall birth defects and cardiovascular system malformation among live births, and this risk is significantly higher in high-risk cluster than that in low-risk cluster. After adjusting for confounding factors using a generalized linear Poisson model, in high-risk cluster the prevalence of nervous system malformation decreased by approximately 2.71%, and the proportion of cardiovascular system malformation rose by 0.92% from 2009 to 2013. The Chinese government should make great efforts to provide primary prevention for those on high-risk cluster as a priority target population.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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