Satellite‐Based Estimate of Intrinsic Predictability Limits at Convective Scales Over Northeast India

Abstract Spheroscale estimates are essential not only for incorporating the seemingly incompatible phenomenon of atmospheric convection within the framework of wide‐range horizontal and vertical scaling in the atmosphere, but also to make semi‐empirical estimates of the storm‐scale atmospheric predictability limits. Since spheroscales are extremely variable, this study computes yearly spheroscales during convective weather events over a selected part of northeast India for 5 different years using the ensemble‐averaged fluctuations of radar reflectivity from the CloudSat geometric profile data set. All these spheroscale estimates are consistently less than 100 m and are directly proportional to the maximum reflectivity observed during the corresponding year. This is in agreement with the fact that spheroscales for unstable atmospheric fields are larger than that of stable atmospheric fields. The semi‐empirical angle‐averaged predictability limits estimated using these spheroscale estimates illustrate that atmospheric fields with larger spheroscales are weakly stable and have smaller intrinsic predictability limits thereby making them less predictable.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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