How aging affects low-carbon crop yield in rural China?

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cropland while ensuring food security is a critical component of the sustainable development goal. Previous studies demonstrated the huge potential of cropland related GHG mitigation and yield production by adopting a broad range of technologies, integrating effective management practices and switching crop production modes. However, the mechanisms by which labor aging affects low-carbon crop yield remain unclear in labor-intensive agricultural sector of China, especially under the rapid demographic aging globally. This study aims to fill the gap by employing the Tobit regression and proposing structural equation model (SEM), taking site investigation samples in rural China (smallholders with rice, wheat and maize cropping, n = 2889) as cases, given the serious labor aging occurred in China’s rural area and its crop yield dominated by smallholders. The method can be transferable to any other countries facing the challenge of rural labor aging and GHG emissions mitigation. The results showed that the impact of agricultural labor aging on low-carbon agricultural yield was significantly mediated by agricultural machinery. Increased agricultural mechanization contributed to higher emissions while improving crop yields, but its adoption was negatively affected by aging. Aging, especially for the physical limitations and a reliance on empirical practices and collectivist knowledge communication of smallholders in this study, led to a reduction in the adoption of agricultural machinery, which indirectly decreased cropland GHG emissions through decreased fossil energy consumption, yet hindered crop yield. Finally, the policy implications, including enhancing agricultural machinery training, green energy machinery, and subsidies, were raised. This study highlights the climate change mitigation opportunities should consider the important role of population aging especially in rural areas.

Abstract licence: CC BY-NC

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